I bless the rains down in Africa.
I find Africa fascinating.
My interest was piqued some 27 years ago with the discovery of people in South Africa with whom I share a last name. I have been privileged to come to know some of these likely distant family members.
However, it was Botswana that grabbed my attention.
The recent catalyst for my interest in South Africa’s neighbor to the north was its nation-state origin story. It’s a happy story. Being a history nerd I discovered the book “Why Nations Fail” by Daron Acemoglu & James Robinson, and found in Botswana a notable tale of success.1
In 1895, African chiefs representing 3 of the 8 Tswana states of Bechuanaland, future Botswana, came to London to petition the colonial secretary of Queen Victoria. Khama of the BaNgwato, Bathoen of the BaNgwaketse, and Sebele of the BaKwena, men now immortalized in statue in Gabarone,2 had but one request: please saves us from the rapacious Cecil Rhodes.3
The chiefs were Christian. David Livingstone himself had converted a chief of the Kwena in the 1840s, and The Bible was first translated into an African language, Setswana, the language of the Tswana. Their petition efforts were successful, made more so by the actions of Rhodes himself, as “pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall.”4 Cecil Rhodes had reached the apex of his hubris and destroyed himself with the Jameson Raid.5 If you’re going to launch a war, you better win. Rhodes lost, and Africa won.
Thus the Bechuanaland Protectorate6 was brought under full Crown control. The British did not colonize Tswana lands, rather controlled foreign policy, enjoyed railroad right-of-ways and a path to the interior of Africa, and otherwise left the Tswana to themselves for internal management of the protectorate.
With independence in 1966,7 Botswana’s first president Seretse Khama and his Botswana Democratic Party quickly developed inclusive economic and political institutions, just as Acemoglu & Robinson had outlined as conditions necessary for a successful nation-state.
Émile Durkheim, eat your heart out.8
The Tswana had done more than provide the textbook case of how to have a prosperous nation-state.9 By saving their culture they also bequeathed to Botswana, Land of the Tswana, a role in any African Renaissance; that of exemplar of how to do it right.
Luck, of course, helps. In this case it helps Botswana. Diamond mines don’t hurt, especially if managed by a government that shares the wealth instead of managed by a grasping, autocratic racist like Rhodes. Botswana's relatively small and homogeneous population helps, too.
However, luck has not always been on Africa’s side, and I am not simply talking about resource extraction, European colonialism, nor the European, Arabic and African slave trades that fed upon the people of Africa from west, east, and within.
No, I am also talking about climate. Changes in a beginning can impact outcomes at an end. Given we are all Africans by “descent,” to use Darwin’s own language, Africa is that part of Earth where climate change may have impacted humans more than anywhere else.
A glacial dry period 5-10 million years ago resulted in greater savannah grasslands and a catalytic stimulus for our species’ evolution as bipeds.10 Another such glacial dry spell around 2 million years ago resulted in “Upright Man” (Homo Erectus) winning the evolutionary game against “Handy Man” (Homo Habilis).11
More recently a period of high rainfall ended around 3500 BCE. The northern half of Africa changed from pasture land to desert. The resultant migrations, particularly of the Bantu from West Africa to the east and south, changed cultures across the continent.12 More importantly and detrimentally was the erection of a largely impermeable cultural barrier known as the Sahara Desert. As the Mediterranean Sea ultimately became a Roman lake and facilitated growth and commerce and cultural exchange, the Sahara had the opposite impact, inhibiting contact.
Climate had first changed our bodies; now, it changed our minds.
It was as if Nature allowed Africa to birth humanity and enable its flourishing, only to cut off the cradle of its birth from the ebb and flow of cultural interaction on the Eurasian landmass.
And just when technology in the form of sailing helped to overcome the natural barrier of the Sahara, fortune again frowned on Africa in the 15th Century of our Common Era.
First, Constantinople fell in 1453. With the Byzantines in charge, Slavs were plentiful as slaves for Europe (the word slave comes from Slav).13 With Constantinople becoming Istanbul, Eastern European slaves were diverted to the Muslim world.
Second, in 1492, Spain found the Americas. To destroy the native cultures of North and South America, only meeting was necessary. Diseases brought from Eurasia killed more than 90% of the population of Americans (American in a geographical, not political, sense), as they had no natural immunity.14
With no sizable native population remaining to enslave in order to harvest the riches of the Americas, and with the Eastern European slave trade diverted to feed the hungers of the Middle East, African slave states found ready customers in Europeans ready to buy their people, people with exposure to and therefore some immunity from “Old World” diseases. A few centuries later Europeans would return to Africa, not to buy, rather to conquer.
But now, fast forward to today.
Fortune may yet smile on Africa.
Africa can be the powerhouse of the world economy in the 21st Century, with Earth’s economic dynamism centered on that continent.
This is possible because there are 3 promising trends occurring right now in Africa:15
Growth of a large African middle-class;
A competitive labor market; and
A developing large consumer market.
These are encouraging signs, but they are a result of a burgeoning population. While slower than in the mid-20th Century, Africa has the highest population growth in the world.16
Isn’t a growing population a BAD thing? One immediately thinks of Malthus.17
Indeed, the citation above listing 3 promising trends also lists 3 possible impediments to African economic development:18
Infrastructure pressures;
Poverty; and
Corruption.
The first and second of these issues are results of population growth. Hovering like a specter over any poverty-stricken population with poor infrastructure is the third, corruption. Here South Africa is a cautionary tale, as the African National Congress has forsaken its once proud legacy and led the country to ruin.19 But as we have seen with the example of its neighbor to the north, that not need be the case everywhere always.
And Malthus? Well, he didn’t consider demographic transition.20 Industrialization brought productivity increases. Productivity increases brought greater income. Greater income brought decreases in population growth.21 This is because greater income brought greater life length because money buys better homes and better food. If most of your children will survive childhood, you don’t need to have as many as when you’re poor.
All this shows is that Malthus was wrong when he said we would have EVER increasing masses of people with fewer resources to feed them. Rather, fewer people are poor today than at any time in history.22
The question remains: Are more people good for development?
The answer appears to be Yes, with an asterik.23
Malthus had it half-right; absent productivity increases, his trap can be real. Africa is currently exiting that trap, as did Europe, as did Asia. This is a result of industrialization, our needed asterik.24 Different African nations are at different stages of this transition. The evidence seems to indicate that “population growth exerts a positive impact on economic growth of Africa while fertility has a negative impact on economic growth of Africa.”25
One can witness this happening now. The African population is growing overall, but fertility is on the decline, falling faster in some places than others.26 In fact, as economic conditions improve, so does education. Fertility drops further when one combines economic development with women’s education and family planning programs.27 This can engender a virtuous cycle.
Thus, the above 3 promising trends are evidence of the Malthusian transition.
Maybe overall population growth reflects an industrializing, dynamic society where people have more people because they feel positive about the future. Maybe high population growth AND high fertility imply demographic transition has not yet taken place in a region. Maybe locales with high fertility could be markers for targeted economic development aid and education programs and family planning efforts. Because I am a “glass half full” guy I draw my own conclusion.
The evidence seems to indicate Africa is following Europe and Asia towards advanced economic development.
Growth in Africa’s middle class, a competitive labor market, and a developing consumer market are signs of this development.28 Infrastructure pressures, poverty, and corruption,29 when one thinks about it, is just what happens when one industrializes. Capitalism comes with plusses and minuses (but it is NOT zero-sum).
Regarding the plusses, once again Botswana is an exemplar. Gabarone would like to become a new African Silicon Valley:303132
Extra points are awarded for designing the grounds like a spaceship.
Similar projects are also underway to the north, in Lagos, Nigeria, where Iyin Aboyeji,33 the founder of Flutterwave, a digital payment system, is leading similar efforts:34
Evidently Africa’s tech billionaires have also adopted the dress style of America’s IT entrepreneurs, but I digress.
So, in Africa we have public sector and government technological efforts competing with private sector entrepreneurs and their technological efforts.
Sound familiar? Sounds somewhat like the good ol’ US of A. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
Speaking of the United States, how do we fare with this great African economic engine chugging along across the Atlantic?
Pretty well, in fact.
People vote with their feet, and 2 facts stand out:35
The US has more immigrants than any other country in the world, and
The US has more refuges than any other country in the world.
More than 40 million Americans were born in another country. About 3 million of those immigrants are refuges. Indeed, immigrants and their descendants will account for 88% of US population grown through 2065.36
While the United States will “slide” from 3rd to 4th most populous country by 2100, that is only because Nigeria’s population will rocket past China’s, 2nd only to India’s. Nigeria grows from just over 200 million people today to just shy of 800 million in 2100.37
Lagos could be Earth’s first city to reach a population of 100 million.38 China’s population will plummet from 1.4 billion to 732 million, and India’s will drop from 1.38 billion to 1 billion.39 The populations of Japan, Brazil, and Russia all decline. In the midst of this African Renaissance, the United States still gains in population.40 The main action on Earth in 2100 may be in Africa,18 but the US is still sought out.
Why?
Because people are buying what we’re selling,41 and the USA raison d’etre is Freedom.42 That may sound simple, but good mottos usually are. And Africa benefits from engaging with the United States. The BRICS effort is a nice try, but it is only a Try.43 The US has been a Do.44
Indeed, with Africa poised to assume economic centrality, it behooves the United States to keeping selling what we’re selling. It’s good for us to invest in Africa. After all, there’s money to be made, and we’re capitalists. But if we’re trading with other capitalists that means they’re making money too, and that’s good for Africa. No zero-sum, remember?
Money aside, it’s good to be good neighbors. Aid now helps. Foreign aid is an investment in future US trading partners. This is US taxpayer money well spent. Such money buys development, but also goodwill.
The effort need not be large, only useful. China is making major investments, and it will be interesting to see how that continues with their current economic problems and demographic constraints as well as their growing desire to invade Taiwan. But it only took $15 billion dollars (only, I say) to make PEPFAR the overwhelming public health success that it is.45
George W. Bush is welcomed everywhere in Africa, and with good reason.46 That is the moral reward one receives for saving 25 million lives.47 But saving people’s lives also improves economic conditions (go figure). President Bush himself notes the primacy of targeted foreign aid, health care efforts, and education.48
For all these reasons, yes, I find Africa fascinating.
I have reflected on why I find Africa so interesting. Discovering family was exciting, but I was interested before. I suspect a happenstance from my early childhood. Changes in a beginning can impact outcomes at an end.
In my case it was pre-kindergarten classes at the local YMCA in Fort Myers, Florida, I suspect around 1968 to 1970, when I was 4 to 6 years old. Being the YMCA, and being 1968 to 1970, this was an integrated experience.49 I know because there was one other boy, exactly my age and height, with whom I played dodgeball. I just thought it was cool because while we both had the same name he was the opposite color of me, like those guys on Star Trek (which I barely remember in its first run).50 We became friends because we became friends because that’s what kids do. Only now do I realize what a blessing we both received. I remember being told he was African. Cool.
So I find Africa fascinating because some people want to tell others that people are different when in fact we’re all just the same. That’s what I learned at age 5 from the other Victor. But in moving from the personal to the abstract, or the individual to society, I find Africa fascinating as a canvas upon which to see all the amazing, moving parts that make up human society, and its movement through time from our beginning, which we call history.
Our environment literally changed our bodies. Then in separating us with the Sahara, it changed our minds (and cultures). Later we see people discover Earth’s great riches, and react with technology and war. We see individuals like Cecil Rhodes and the 3 Dikgosi (chiefs)51 act both as agents of change and as surfers on a wave of cultural, economic, and political forces.
What makes humans different from water, however, is that humans can create a wave themselves, and sometimes ride it to their destruction as with Rhodes, or to eternal life by becoming literal inspiration, an idea, like the 3 Dikgosi.
I took the title of this essay from a silly and happy song. It is silly, joyful, and happy, just like life should be but usually isn’t. Sometimes I think we need only choose it. I know one day I am going to choose to cross the Atlantic. I find Africa…hopeful. Changes in a beginning can impact outcomes at an end.
I bless the rains down in Africa.52
Art Credit - Yoruba Palace Door ca. 1920, by Olówè of Isè, Detroit Institute of Arts - https://dia.org/collection/palace-door-87075
Ibid.
Ibid.
Ibid.
Ibid.
Ibid.
Ibid.
Ibid.
An ideological source, but correct - https://thedispatch.com/article/five-words-of-wisdom/